Writing a hypothesis for a research paper UK

How thin the reed? Generalizing from 'Worms at Work' - The GiveWell Blog How thin the reed? Generalizing from 'Worms at Work' - The GiveWell Blog
The working paper by Kevin Croke, Eric Hsu, and authors of Worms at Work. The paper looks ... various UK health charities, Childline, Samaritans, FGM charities; UK governments nudge ... And long-term research tends to take a long time. So I close by suggesting two strategies ... That hypotheses ought ... ·

Writing a hypothesis for a research paper UK

I studied medicine and then worked in health promotion in india, madagascar and west africa. In the first, motivated by a particular theory, i brought a narrow set of hypotheses to the data. Where before i ran the worms at work wage earnings regression centering on 1140 meters, then 1150, etc.

While i think they over-interpret confidence intervals containing zero as evidence of zero impact, and while i argue against their premise of no impact, i think their core idea makes sense. Typically, a minority of children in todays deworming settings are infected, so impacts from mass deworming are smaller and harder to detect. In the end, one variable caught my eye when mapped, and then appeared to be an important mediator of impact when entered into the wage earnings regression.

I sought to check whether the experiment raised earnings more for children in praziquantel areas. More likely, i would think, the short-term biomedical gains would be epiphenomena of less-observable biological processes. .

For some clear thinking on the meaning of confidence intervals, p values, etc. If you can think of another felicitous way to express this idea to non-experts that is less confusing, let me know. One other short-term source of long-term evidence is the impending analysis of the 201114 follow-up on the worms experiment, mentioned in the.

How better nutrition would manifest in the worms teenagers, im not sure. In the case of weightwhich is among the best-studied outcomes and more likely to respond to treatment in the short runcroke et al. Such a finding could be read to say that schistosomiasis is an especially damaging parasite, making treatment for it especially valuable.

As i will discuss below, such insight is easier imagined than attained. As an indicator of heavy worm burden or poor general health, low weight  have predicted impact. Only three outcomes are covered by more than three studies in the cochrane reviews meta-analyses weight, height, and hemoglobin. I calculate that 27 of children in the worms sample had moderate or serious infections, going by  , which can be viewed conservatively as double the 216 croke et al. It is a childs initial weight-for-age z-score (waz), which measures a childs weight relative to his or her age peers.


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Writing a paper does not achieve consensus, it presents an idea. Most papers are ... of government-financed research. Can you find just ONE paper that doesn't have that ... So there's that hypothesis out the window. If you don't take account of these facts, you ... There are estimates around on how ... ·

Writing a hypothesis for a research paper UK

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Writing a hypothesis for a research paper UK In addition, Returning to the worms at work data. As i say, the evidence is circumstantial two quantities of primary interestinitial worm burden and subsequent impactrelate to elevation in about the same way, I, on the other hand, only met that argument in this post you then knock it down. In sum, What does the literature say about a 100 g gain through other means (food support, income support), is it consistent with that mean income gain? Whats known about that weight-income linkage? Or you could focus on infected children, e. Before confronting the contradiction between the first two reviews and the third, i will show you a style of reasoning in all of them. In the case of weightwhich is among the best-studied outcomes and more likely to respond to treatment in the short runcroke et al. Extrapolating the worms at work results to other settings in proportion to infection intensity (eggsgram) looks reasonable. These findings were based on weighing 6,000 children in the study a year after the first round of mass deworming, so are unlikely to result from inadequate sample sizetime elapsed. More research on whether and where the intervention is especially beneficial would cost only a small fraction of all those deworming campaigns, If we grant that deworming probably boosted long-term earnings of children in busia.
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    I appreciate your suggestions on funding and sense that it would be best not to discuss them further here. Perhaps you can elaborate on why you believe that without a clear causal mechanism, we should not support mass deworming. Nevertheless, my investigation of the first link in the theory led me to some interesting discoveries. For example, those in the delta to the extreme southwest probably needed it since all their neighbors did. .

    For some clear thinking on the meaning of confidence intervals, p values, etc. The next graph is the same except that it only counts infections that are moderate or heavy according to who definitions interestingly, restricting to serious cases enhances the similarity between the infection curves, just above, and the earlier. Extrapolating the worms at work results to other settings in proportion to infection intensity (eggsgram) looks reasonable. The problem with that is that since i tested about 20 hypotheses, i should expect about one to manifest as statistically significant just by chance (at p 0. In the lower-right of the figure, the bolded numbers and the black diamond present the meta-analytical bottom line across these 13 trials, mass deworming increased weight by an average 0.

    After i mapped the schools, it hit me i could make two-dimensional versions of my earlier graphs, slicing the data not by elevation, but by longitude and latitude. And if its mostly one of those, then weight gain would seem more like a visible correlate of the mechanism, rather than the mechanism per se. I studied medicine and then worked in health promotion in india, madagascar and west africa. Im surprised if the effects of nutrition are quite so huge, but if they are i need to learn more! And its possible theres no generalization from weight gain following food intervention over to weight gain following health intervention. First, this graph shows like the first table in this post, this graph shows that hookworms lived in nearly all the children, while roundworm and whipworm were each in about half. Treatment of children known to carry worms improves their nutritional status, as measured by weight and height. The compatibility of that theory with the evidence, by the way, exposes a logical fallacy in the cochrane authors conclusion that there is now substantial evidence that mass treatment has zero effect on the outcomes of interest. What is actually plotted above is the 95 ci, the 85 c, the 75 ci, etc. Worms-like setting, we should expect twice as many children to have benefited, doubling the average weight gain from 0. Contemplating the exploration to this point, i was struck to appreciate that while elevation might not directly matter for the impacts of deworming, like a saw through a log, introducing it exposed the grain of the data.

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    While the paper lacks the elaborate, formal protocols of the cochrane and campbell reviews, it adds value in extracting more information from available studies in order to sharpen the impact estimates. Nevertheless, my investigation of the first link in the theory led me to some interesting discoveries. Worms, humans, institutions, and settings are diverse, so impacts probably are too. So all schools were put on albendazole, whether during the experiment (for treatment groups) or not until after (control group). Among the group 3 schools, i marked those which school identifiers 108, 218, 205, 202, 189, 167, 212, 211 as warranting praziquantel...

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    Maybe the 199798 el nino, which , exacerbated the conditions for the spread of worms, especially at low elevations. I sought to check whether the experiment raised earnings more for children in praziquantel areas. Is the study short-term or long-term? Assuming it is short-term, id want to know how adding it affects croke et al. So in this specific instance, which happens to be pretty-much the single study that your entire endorsement of 4 charities rests upon, there is no objective process evidence that your supposed causal mechanism was actually acting. Their results are compatible with others estimates and make it appear unlikely that average short-term impact of mass deworming is zero or negative...

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    Low schools are closer to lake victoria and the rivers that feed it and their children therefore were more afflicted by schistosomiasis. In the lower-right of the figure, the bolded numbers and the black diamond present the meta-analytical bottom line across these 13 trials, mass deworming increased weight by an average 0. In the case of weightwhich is among the best-studied outcomes and more likely to respond to treatment in the short runcroke et al. However, in mass treatment of all children in endemic areas, there is now substantial evidence that this does not improve average nutritional status, haemoglobin, cognition, school performance, or survival...